Buy vs rent tool
How likely is buying to beat renting?
No one knows the future price of a home or the return of a portfolio. This simulator draws a thousand possible futures and reports how often buying finishes ahead in the buy vs rent comparison.
Example with default assumptions
After 10 years, buying finishes ahead of renting by about $41,686. On these assumptions buying overtakes renting after about 5.7 years, once selling costs are counted. The owner's first-month cash cost is $3,757, compared with $2,325 for the renter.
| Year | Home value | Mortgage balance | Buyer net worth | Renter net worth | Buying minus renting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $621,000 | $469,303 | $117,835 | $150,940 | −$33,105 |
| 2 | $642,735 | $458,120 | $149,966 | $176,418 | −$26,452 |
| 3 | $665,231 | $446,428 | $183,341 | $202,855 | −$19,514 |
| 4 | $688,514 | $434,203 | $218,008 | $230,289 | −$12,281 |
| 5 | $712,612 | $421,423 | $258,759 | $258,763 | −$4 |
| 10 | $846,359 | $348,248 | $460,065 | $418,379 | $41,686 |
What the simulation does
Each year, home-price growth and investment returns are drawn from normal distributions around your averages, with the volatility and correlation you choose. The same household rules as the main calculator then apply. The seed is fixed so the same inputs always give the same answer.
The results are illustrative. Real markets have fat tails, regional differences and regimes that a simple distribution does not capture.
Questions people ask
What is the probability measuring?
The share of simulated futures in which buying ends with more net worth than renting at your horizon.
Why a fixed seed?
So you can reproduce and share results. Changing the seed shows how sensitive the estimate is.
Is this a forecast?
No. It describes outcomes under assumptions, not what will happen.
Educational estimates based on your inputs; not advice. See the methodology and assumptions.